Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Recent Posts

Grab Your Socks!

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Oh well, here we go again. Ask five Economists a question , and it’s a guarantee you will get at a minimum of six answers, possible more. Why? Because it is a “social” science. Give someone a $1,000 stimulus check, what will he do with it? Well, that’s where the “social” comes in. What’s the state of the economy at the time, who is getting this check, married or single, children, how many, where does he live, how much debt does he have, working, retired or unemployed? These and many more questions come into play before any one can predict what he does with it. And even then, it’s merely a prediction! I  cannot believe some of the garbage this former Fed chairman is spewing, but then I looked at her bio and saw where she was educated and who she worked for, and it all came to light. 

For what it is worth I am in the “No Fed Camp,” that is I do not believe in the Federal Reserve. I believe they do more harm than good and sometimes their actions are disastrous e.g., late 70’s when mortgage rates climbed well over 12% So, based on what this lady is saying, I believe we are on the road to disaster. Stupid comments by someone who should know better.

I could reprint the article for Bunkerville, but I’d like you to go see it for yourself and decide where you fit into the inflation world that is heading our way. Just click the link below

Yellen Concedes Inflation Is About To Surge, Says It Will Be A “Plus For Society”

Originally posted 2021-06-07 10:26:51.

Recent Posts

Punishment

LOL, this is so funny. Some may have trouble understanding what Mr. Lindsey is saying in this article. Heck I had to read it again slowly to get the full drift. The bottom line is simple, raise the tax and get less revenue. LOL Makes sense to me, What an idiot this president is. That is unless he is doing it as Mr. Lindsey thinks, to punish the rich and the hell with revenue. OMG.

 

And if anyone is qualified to talk on this subject it is certainly Dr. Lawrence Lindsey, former Governor of the Federal Reserve System for six years.

The Biden administration last week proposed to increase the capital-gains tax rate—currently 20% for most assets held for at least a year—to 39.6% for people making more than $1 million. Since capital gains are also subject to the 3.8% Medicare tax, the new capital-gains rate would be 43.4%.

What makes this unusual is that 43.4% is well above the rate that would generate the most revenue for the government. Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation, which does the official scoring and is no den of supply siders, puts the revenue-maximizing rate at 28%. My work several decades ago puts it about 10 points lower than that. That means President Biden is willing to accept lower revenue as the price of higher tax rates. The implications for his administration’s economic thinking are mind-boggling.

Even the revenue-maximizing rate is higher than would be optimal. As tax rates rise, the activity being taxed declines. The loss to the private side of society increases at a geometric rate (proportional to the square of the tax rate) as rates rise. The government collects more revenue, but its gains slow as the taxed activity declines. The revenue-maximizing rate is the point at which the government starts losing from higher taxes. Tax rates above the revenue-maximizing rate are punitive: The government is giving up revenue simply to punish the rich.

Punishing the rich is distinct from redistribution. Higher taxes on the rich to finance spending, or to transfer money to lower-income people, may be good for society’s welfare. Economists express this idea in a “social-welfare function,” which weights additional income received by different people, usually based on income. The same sum is considered less valuable if it goes to a high-income person than a lower-income one. The weights are subjective and different analysts will choose different weights.

Still, economists can agree that the ideal is to make someone better off without making someone else worse off. The simplest case is a voluntary exchange of goods for money, in which the buyer values the purchase at least as much as the price, while the seller values the money at least as much as the item being sold. Economists call such an exchange Pareto-optimal after Vilfredo Pareto, the Italian economist who formally framed the concept.

There is no choice in paying taxes, and usually the government is better off and the taxpayer is worse off. But above the revenue-maximizing rate, even the government is worse off. This is called Pareto-pessimal.

Generally, the government can raise tax rates and transfer the money to lower-income people, thereby improving social welfare. The government can do this even after incurring the economic burdens caused by higher rates and the costs of transferring money (known as the “leaky bucket”). The trade-off depends on how much tax rates distort the economy, how big the leaky-bucket effect is, and how one evaluates the difference in value of money going to people in different income groups.

As indicated by other proposals, the current administration rates money going to lower-income people extremely highly relative to higher-income people—higher than has traditionally been the case in U.S. economic policy. It also seems to put little weight on excess economic burdens and leaky-bucket costs. The wisdom of those choices will be tested at the ballot box.

But to an economist, a Pareto-pessimal choice is unwise by definition. There is no set of “weights” one can devise to justify this proposal, because there are no highly prized winners to offset the losses to the low-weighted losers.

The concept of social-welfare maximization has been a cornerstone of economic thinking across the political spectrum for the past century. It dates back at least to Adam Smith in the 18th century, and arguably to the 17th, when Jean-Baptiste Colbert, King Louis XIV’s finance minister, declared “the perfection of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to procure the greatest amount of feathers with the least possible amount of squawking.”

That’s why it is shocking that this policy got past the economists in the administration, many of whom have had long and distinguished careers. The Biden administration is blowing up one of the key concepts that has united the economics profession: maximizing social welfare. It now believes in taxation purely as a form of punishment and is even willing to sacrifice revenue to carry it out.

Mr. Lindsey is president and CEO of the Lindsey Group. He served as a Federal Reserve governor (1991-97) and assistant to the president for economic policy (2001-02).

Originally posted 2021-04-26 15:14:18.

Current Events

All Dollars and Little Sense

3 Comments

Good day fellow patriots and conservatives. Haven’t posted in a few days as I have been overwhelmed with tales from the swamp creatures and their devious ways. The trial is over, and as we expected he was was found guilty, albeit with Joe and the b**ch from california ( I refuse to capitalize the name of that foreign land) spouting off at the mouth there is lots of ammo for an appeal. Let’s keep praying for it to happen..

And of course the House voted to make DC a state. Oh isn’t that great two more leftist senators and one congressman for the swamp. I don’t hold out much hope from the senate to strike it down; too many leftist republicans in there. So, how will we arrange the stars in the flag?  That will be fun to watch.

From my tone you may wonder what is going on. Well at my ripe age, I refuse to get excited about what happens. Oh, don’t get me wrong. When the war comes, I shall man the lines as I have done before, and if anyone offers me a billet such as a battalion commander, I shall rise to the occasion, as I am sure you will as well.

Had lunch today with two old fellow retired colonels with whom I have served several times, but not seen them in a while — I really don’t know why since we are all retired.  Joining us was another local retired colonel and a retired captain. Of course the items of discussion was a few war stories and lots about the swamp. It’s always a good time when Marine brothers can get together — I miss that.

Okay, what’s the post? Well , as many of you know, I am an Economist by education and full time hobby. I enjoy playing in the market. Today’s post came from my old friend and contributor , Eric Maresca. As a market player I found the article interesting and a dire warning to those who do as I do. Read and learn

By Eric Maresca

The stock market bull rally that got underway after a giant fall last February and ushered in the COVID era has been relentless. Who would believe record highs were even possible after such a swift drop during a pandemic, followed by political turmoil and civil chaos.

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again and went on a printing spree pumping trillions into the economy through three stimulus packages, the benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were catapulted to virgin territory. Likewise, we are in the midst of a cryptocurrency revolution where their hourly values run like an amusement park roller coaster.

With the M1 Money supply – the amount of liquidity available for spending – also at an all-time high at $18.4 trillion, the potential for one of the biggest economic booms in U.S. history is primed.

This optimism has predicted a strong 2021 second half.

The larger concern is 2022 and beyond.

Historically, long periods of low interest rates combined with a growing federal debt is no yellow brick road to Oz. You cannot ignore the laws of physics, gravity, or economics, as the government is spending itself into oblivion. From 2010 to 2019, the aggregate GDP growth was nearly the same Uncle Sam spent in COVID stimulus.

With so much stimulus finding their way to Wall Street, stock prices have been inflated. To underscore how pricey stocks are all you have to do is to juxtapose the price-to-earnings multiple at 31.5 and the price-to-sales at 2.9. At the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, the price-to-earnings ratio was 29 and the price-to-sales ratio at 2.3. In addition, the stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio that measures markets relative to the economy that peaked in 2000 at 140%, stands today at 190%.

Can you whisper bubble? Such a pop would result in a fiscal 9/11 and catch many nascent investors napping. Many were too young to recall the dot-com bubble burst over a generation ago and will pay dearly.

As the stock market rolls along, so does the national deficit. In fact, it seems to be about the only thing that is mushrooming faster. This should concern plenty, but along the D.C. Beltway such matters are dismissed.

 Stock trading has drawn plenty of new players armed with their “stimmy.” Rather, than paying bills, buying necessities, or paying down their debts, these emerging investors have turned day trading into gamification. With success they gain confidence and buy more shares, but the market’s present trajectory won’t last. When it drops many will see it as a fire-sale opportunity.

The stock app at center stage is aptly named Robinhood having taken its namesake from the English Democrat who robbed from the rich and redistributed their wealth. In this stimulus era of Robinhood fever and GameStop, why waste time researching good companies at reasonable prices, and then waiting years for returns to compound?

Apps like Robinhood, SoFi, Webull, and Public.com can be fun, but addictive, and a bookkeeping nightmare.

Such internet trading platforms make basic tax-abating strategies difficult to implement. Buying and selling stocks by the lot can lower your tax bill by choosing which shares to sell. However, selling specific lots are difficult or impossible to do online as sales are based on a first-in-first-out (FIFO) basis, where the oldest shares are sold first.

These time-honored tactics may be the least of their concerns when the market turns because it will. Once the public buys in, time is short and the potential for disaster gains momentum. When the melt down commences, nearly everyone will lose more on the way down than they made on the way up. Melt Downs do not end quickly, but over time. If the market is one thing – it is unforgiving.

Market peaks are clear in retrospection, but not in the moment, but the warning signs are there.

Do not confuse a bull market for brains.

As the timeworn adage rings: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” That applies for booms, too.

Mot people do not have an exit plan like trailing stops that protects your gains and prevents you from losing more money. A diversified portfolio and fixed selling points is always your friend.

In my ECON 101 class the professor told a story that I have found over the years to an absolute. “Put five Economists in a room and ask them a simple question and you will always get at least six answers.” I have been trimming my portfolios for the last two months. I have more cash than I have ever had, upwards of 30% cash, and I keep building it. I have good stocks e.g., DOW down over 300 points today and my portfolio was up 1.9%. But I keep taking some profits and paring down. I believe it is coming folks; somone has to pay the bills the swamp is piling up.  Greg is talking common sense.

Originally posted 2021-04-22 17:16:31.