Tag Archives: retirements

Current Events

All Dollars and Little Sense

3 Comments

Good day fellow patriots and conservatives. Haven’t posted in a few days as I have been overwhelmed with tales from the swamp creatures and their devious ways. The trial is over, and as we expected he was was found guilty, albeit with Joe and the b**ch from california ( I refuse to capitalize the name of that foreign land) spouting off at the mouth there is lots of ammo for an appeal. Let’s keep praying for it to happen..

And of course the House voted to make DC a state. Oh isn’t that great two more leftist senators and one congressman for the swamp. I don’t hold out much hope from the senate to strike it down; too many leftist republicans in there. So, how will we arrange the stars in the flag?  That will be fun to watch.

From my tone you may wonder what is going on. Well at my ripe age, I refuse to get excited about what happens. Oh, don’t get me wrong. When the war comes, I shall man the lines as I have done before, and if anyone offers me a billet such as a battalion commander, I shall rise to the occasion, as I am sure you will as well.

Had lunch today with two old fellow retired colonels with whom I have served several times, but not seen them in a while — I really don’t know why since we are all retired.  Joining us was another local retired colonel and a retired captain. Of course the items of discussion was a few war stories and lots about the swamp. It’s always a good time when Marine brothers can get together — I miss that.

Okay, what’s the post? Well , as many of you know, I am an Economist by education and full time hobby. I enjoy playing in the market. Today’s post came from my old friend and contributor , Eric Maresca. As a market player I found the article interesting and a dire warning to those who do as I do. Read and learn

By Eric Maresca

The stock market bull rally that got underway after a giant fall last February and ushered in the COVID era has been relentless. Who would believe record highs were even possible after such a swift drop during a pandemic, followed by political turmoil and civil chaos.

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again and went on a printing spree pumping trillions into the economy through three stimulus packages, the benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were catapulted to virgin territory. Likewise, we are in the midst of a cryptocurrency revolution where their hourly values run like an amusement park roller coaster.

With the M1 Money supply – the amount of liquidity available for spending – also at an all-time high at $18.4 trillion, the potential for one of the biggest economic booms in U.S. history is primed.

This optimism has predicted a strong 2021 second half.

The larger concern is 2022 and beyond.

Historically, long periods of low interest rates combined with a growing federal debt is no yellow brick road to Oz. You cannot ignore the laws of physics, gravity, or economics, as the government is spending itself into oblivion. From 2010 to 2019, the aggregate GDP growth was nearly the same Uncle Sam spent in COVID stimulus.

With so much stimulus finding their way to Wall Street, stock prices have been inflated. To underscore how pricey stocks are all you have to do is to juxtapose the price-to-earnings multiple at 31.5 and the price-to-sales at 2.9. At the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, the price-to-earnings ratio was 29 and the price-to-sales ratio at 2.3. In addition, the stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio that measures markets relative to the economy that peaked in 2000 at 140%, stands today at 190%.

Can you whisper bubble? Such a pop would result in a fiscal 9/11 and catch many nascent investors napping. Many were too young to recall the dot-com bubble burst over a generation ago and will pay dearly.

As the stock market rolls along, so does the national deficit. In fact, it seems to be about the only thing that is mushrooming faster. This should concern plenty, but along the D.C. Beltway such matters are dismissed.

 Stock trading has drawn plenty of new players armed with their “stimmy.” Rather, than paying bills, buying necessities, or paying down their debts, these emerging investors have turned day trading into gamification. With success they gain confidence and buy more shares, but the market’s present trajectory won’t last. When it drops many will see it as a fire-sale opportunity.

The stock app at center stage is aptly named Robinhood having taken its namesake from the English Democrat who robbed from the rich and redistributed their wealth. In this stimulus era of Robinhood fever and GameStop, why waste time researching good companies at reasonable prices, and then waiting years for returns to compound?

Apps like Robinhood, SoFi, Webull, and Public.com can be fun, but addictive, and a bookkeeping nightmare.

Such internet trading platforms make basic tax-abating strategies difficult to implement. Buying and selling stocks by the lot can lower your tax bill by choosing which shares to sell. However, selling specific lots are difficult or impossible to do online as sales are based on a first-in-first-out (FIFO) basis, where the oldest shares are sold first.

These time-honored tactics may be the least of their concerns when the market turns because it will. Once the public buys in, time is short and the potential for disaster gains momentum. When the melt down commences, nearly everyone will lose more on the way down than they made on the way up. Melt Downs do not end quickly, but over time. If the market is one thing – it is unforgiving.

Market peaks are clear in retrospection, but not in the moment, but the warning signs are there.

Do not confuse a bull market for brains.

As the timeworn adage rings: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” That applies for booms, too.

Mot people do not have an exit plan like trailing stops that protects your gains and prevents you from losing more money. A diversified portfolio and fixed selling points is always your friend.

In my ECON 101 class the professor told a story that I have found over the years to an absolute. “Put five Economists in a room and ask them a simple question and you will always get at least six answers.” I have been trimming my portfolios for the last two months. I have more cash than I have ever had, upwards of 30% cash, and I keep building it. I have good stocks e.g., DOW down over 300 points today and my portfolio was up 1.9%. But I keep taking some profits and paring down. I believe it is coming folks; somone has to pay the bills the swamp is piling up.  Greg is talking common sense.

Originally posted 2021-04-22 17:16:31.

Current Events

Congress Read and Ask Yourself WHY?

1 Comment

Good afternoon earthlings, I trust you enjoyed your day off yesterday. If you did not have off, shame on your employer, it’s a National Holiday! And for my Marine brothers I trust you enjoyed the day before. We have often been criticized by our brother service members who say 10 November is not our birthday. The say we picked that day because the next day was a holiday and we would have a day to sober up after our Birthday Ball before having to go to work. Hell, I don’t know, maybe their right, but it sure always worked out for me. LOL

Aside, I was wondering what birthday was my first to celebrate as a Marine. Have you ever asked yourself that?  So, did the math, it was the 177th. Ouch!

Now for the purpose of the post. A fellow Marine brother sent this to me and I had seen it before, but thought it had to some great ideas in it, so I decided to post it. However I first vetted it, as I follow Buffet on some economic issues — he is a good economist –and I knew it didn’t sound like the Buffet I knew.

See my comments in RED.

Warren Buffett is asking everyone to forward this email to a minimum of 20 people, and to ask each of those to do likewise. This is not true. Buffet would NEVER do thsi.

The BUFFETT Rule

Let’s see what people pressure is all about.

Salary of retired US Presidents .. . . . .. . . . . .. . $180,000 FOR LIFE. Me thinks this one is okay considering all the BS he has to pout up with for four years. Of course some deserve the BS.

,Salary of House/Senate members .. . . . .. . . . $174,000 FOR LIFE. This is stupid. OMG

Salary of Speaker of the House .. . . . .. . . . . $223,500 FOR LIFE. This is really stupid. Another OMG

Salary of Majority / Minority Leaders . . .. . . . .$193,400 FOR LIFE Stupid. A bigger OMG

Average Salary of a teacher . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. .$40,065 Well? What are teachers qualifications, I believe that should weigh heavily on salary????

Average Salary of a deployed Soldier . . .. . . .. $38,000. Shut up Jim!

Here’s where the cuts should be made!

Warren Buffett, in a recent interview with CNBC, offers one of the best quotes about the debt ceiling:

“I could end the deficit in five minutes,” he told CNBC. “You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” Yes, he said this, BUT he was simply answering a question from the anchor. He did not recommend it, but said it was that easy to fix the deficit.

The 26th Amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only three months and eight days to be ratified! Why? Simple! The people demanded it. That was in 1971 – before computers, e-mail, cell phones, etc.

Of the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took one (1) year or less to become the law of the land – all because of public pressure.

Warren Buffett is asking each addressee to forward this email to a minimum of twenty people on their address list; in turn ask each of those to do likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the message. This is one idea that really should be passed around.

Congressional Reform Act of 2022

1. No Tenure / No Pension. A Congressman / woman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they’re out of office.

2. Congress (past, present, & future) participates in Social Security. I disagree with the “past” requirement, don;t grandfather it, they made that decision so make them stick with it. With no current and future influx to the fund, it will go broker over time. That’s good.

All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the Social Security system immediately. No, as I said let them keep their funds and slowly go broke.  All future funds flow into the Social Security system, and Congress participates with the American people. It may not be used for any other purpose. Yes, absolutely, why should they not particpate in SS? They keep stealing from it, perhaps that will put an end to that!

3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans do.

4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%. Just like the rest of us in the federal government.

5. Congress loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people. Of course, give me one erason why not?

6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people. Come on folks this is a given, why are they exempt from some things?

7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen/women are void effective 3/1/22. The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen/women.

Congress made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and go back to work.

If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people, then it will only take three days for most people in the U.S. to receive the message. It’s time!

THIS IS HOW YOU FIX CONGRESS!

 

Now, I shall say it, if you agree, pass it on.

Semper Fi, Jim

PS If you are wondering how I feel reference the election ….. like shit! But I have not given up. Trump should take Hillary the snake’s advice and not concede. I think you can bet he won’t!

Originally posted 2020-11-12 15:45:21.